'Trump presidency may be more bark than bite on climate'

Professor Chris Hilson, Director of the Centre for Climate and Justice at the University of Reading, comments on the environmental impact the Trump administration may have. 

“The Trump presidency may turn out to be mostly bark and little bite on climate change. On inauguration, he has already announced US withdrawal (for a second time)from the Paris Agreement, but that’s not likely to have the sort of impact it did before in terms of international diplomacy. It’s already more or less priced in. Other countries will carry on without the US.

“Of course, US climate emissions still count for a big slice of the global whole, so what he does domestically on climate also matters. The Biden administration was itself no angel on climate – US fracking continued apace, and exports of LNG reached record highs. Biden did act to reduce methane emissions though, which is critical for remaining below 2 degrees of warming because it’s a very powerful short term greenhouse gas. Trump could be tempted to cut back on those methane rules. But he wants the EU to buy more US oil and gas. And the EU’s new methane law will not allow imports from countries which have weak methane controls. Trade is one of Trump’s favourite policy tools, but it can also be used against him if he tries to engage in a climate race to the bottom.

“Likewise, politicians like Trump are elected for a relatively short term, but the markets invest for periods beyond this. So, US industry will be positioning itself for a decarbonised economy. It won’t be investing in coal. And demand for oil and gas will fall as electrification proceeds.

“The question is whether that decarbonisation and electrification will take place despite Trump of because of him. With Elon Musk’s influence, we might have expected a push to position the US as a new energy powerhouse, with a great lithium industry, a resurgent nuclear industry, and an internationally competitive EV auto and battery industry. Trump is a businessman. And he likes to win. Sticking to a fossil fuel economy is not likely to position the US economy for the win. That’s not a matter of climate, it’s business.

“However, his inauguration speech contained some rollback on policy promoting EVs. Whether that was window-dressing for his base or a sign of something more fundamental remains to be seen. If it is the latter, then the US auto industry risks becoming even more left-behind in the race against China. The US could even start to look like Russia and Cuba once did, with a nation of old tech cars not found anywhere else in the world. That would be an odd legacy.”