Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project science team.

The 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.

Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers, including a University of Reading climate scientist, say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions.

With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year.

Over the past 10 years, fossil CO2 emissions have risen while land-use change CO2 emissions have declined on average – leaving overall emissions roughly level over that period.

This year, both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024.

With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise – driving increasingly dangerous global warming.

The research team included the University of Reading, University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut and 80 other institutions around the world.

Dr. Patrick McGuire, of the University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, participated in the Global Carbon Budget for a second consecutive year and for a fourth time in total. McGuire upgraded and ran the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM), which helped scientists understand the impact of tree and crop growth on carbon emissions. He also evaluated all 21 of the DGVMs with the International LAnd Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) tool, comparing each of the models’ output to observational datasets.

Dr McGuire said: “The new Global Carbon Budget reveals a disturbing reality – global fossil CO2 emissions continue to climb, reaching 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024. Despite clear evidence of accelerating climate impacts, we're still moving in the wrong direction. The need for rapid decarbonisation has never been more urgent.

“We have only about six years until we consistently exceed 1.5°C of warming at current emission rates. While some regions show promising decreases in emissions, the overall global trend remains deeply concerning. We need immediate, coordinated action across all sectors to drastically cut emissions and expand carbon removal efforts."

Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:

- Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions respectively. Given the uncertainty in the projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024.

- China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.

- US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.

- India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.

- European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.

- Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.

- International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total and counted separately from national/regional totals) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024 but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.

- Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% in the past decade but are set to rise in 2024.

- Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.

- Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.

- Atmospheric CO2 levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.

- The effects of the temporary El Niño climate event also led to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems on land (known as the land CO2 “sink”) in 2023, which is projected to recover as El Niño ended by the second quarter of 2024.

- Emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which persisted in 2024) and intense drought in Brazil.

- The land and ocean CO2 sinks combined continued to take up around half of the total CO2 emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change.

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