Expert comments: Warmest February on record

Experts from the University of Reading react to the latest climate data from Copernicus, which shows that February 2024 was the warmest February on record. 

Dr Akshay Deoras, National Centre for Atmospheric Science researcher at the University of Reading, said: "Our planet continues to witness an unprecedented sizzle since June 2023, which is being caused by the symphony of global warming and El Niño. The global average sea surface temperature continues to remain in an uncharted territory, which was supported by a freakish boost from warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean in February 2024. Whilst El Niño is in its waning phase at present, its impact on global temperatures is expected to continue during the first half of 2024. This is likely going to impact the forthcoming hot weather season in south Asian countries, increasing the possibility of scorching temperature and severe heatwaves."

Professor Chris Hilson, Director of the Centre for Climate and Justice at the University of Reading, said: "The latest Copernicus data, revealing that February 2024 was the warmest February on record, is a scientific finding with key social and political implications. Temperature and other climate-related records are being broken almost routinely now, a trend that can produce ‘record-fatigue’ and, if not hopelessness, then a sense of fatalistic resignation. But it can also bring home the truth of what we are confronting. Records tumbling left, right and centre cannot easily be dismissed by climate sceptics. People know what they see. Politicians globally need to show resolve in the face of these facts, seeing the records as an opportunity to raise their ambition both on policies to reduce emissions and on climate adaptation. If they do that, people are more likely to have hope. If they do not, people may gravitate towards a more fatalistic response."

Professor Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, said: "This latest release of data tells a familiar story of warming temperatures and shifting patterns of weather. These are entirely consistent with the patterns we have come to expect as greenhouse gases continue to build up in our thin, life-giving atmosphere.

"This is positive news, in that it provides even more evidence that climate scientists are able to predict the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions ever more consistently. This means that politicians, businesses and individuals can be confident that their strong collective actions now to reduce emissions as much as possible will help themselves and others for years and years to come. If we ignore this evidence and continue to needlessly emit climate-heating gases, our children's generation, and all those that follow, will be justified in pointing to the people who lived in 2024 and cursing our reckless stupidity."

Professor Richard Allan, Professor in Climate Science at the University of Reading, said: "The record global warmth we have been experiencing in February 2024 and over the past year is almost entirely due to continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, though lower levels of harmful aerosol particle pollution in some regions is also now contributing a bit to warming rather than masking it. Global temperatures have been given an extra boost by warm El Niño conditions affecting thousands of miles of the equatorial eastern Pacific and although this slow ocean fluctuation has peaked, its warming influence will linger during 2024.

"What is more surprising is that sea surface temperatures are at record levels over regions far away from the centre of El Niño action such as the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The widespread substantial warmth of the sea surface is consistent with a combination of ocean fluctuations on top of a continued powerful heating effect from rising greenhouse gas concentrations and other smaller factors. A temporary breech of the Paris climate goals is a harbinger of more dangerous climate impacts on the horizon.

"A lesser reported observation is the near record annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from February 2023 to February 2024 which is also explained by emissions from human activities along with an extra boost from El Niño. To halt further rises in carbon dioxide and limit warming of climate and the increased severity of extreme weather events, rapid and massive cuts in greenhouse gases across all sectors of society are essential."