UK floods: ‘Warning review needed’ - expert

Professor Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, comments after widespread flooding following disruption caused by Storm Bert. 

“We have good systems in place to forecast floods, so it is right that we should take the time to review what happened and make improvements. A review of what went right and what went wrong should be based not on individual parts, but on the experience of people and communities who have seen their homes and high streets flooded. If people did not have the time to take action to prepare for floods, then something has gone wrong.

“Flood forecasting is complicated. It requires an understanding of weather patterns, river flows, communication channels and human behavioural psychology. In another sense, it can be quite simple. If there is a month's worth of rain in a day and you live next to a river, you have a higher risk of flooding.

“The fact that we are seeing a council leader in Wales expressing his surprise that floods occurred when the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for rain shows something isn't working. It could be that the warnings were too cautious, or it could be that even senior people on the ground don't properly understand the information that they are being given.

“This storm was well forecast, named several days in advance, and weather warnings were issued. It is problematic if people don't take action because a yellow weather warning is not seen as concerning enough. 

“This highlights some of the problems in issuing alerts for extreme weather. People look to the Met Office for warnings, but the Met Office is not mandated to issue warnings for river flooding. While the Met Office looks to the sky, we expect people in the way of floods to understand that their main risk comes from the river. We expect them to understand that flood warnings are not the responsibility of the Met Office. 

“Looking at the river level forecasts now, it will take a day or two for water high up in the catchment of bigger rivers like the Severn to work its way downstream. Lots of rivers are full, so if there is any further rain it is much more likely to flood.

“I would urge broadcasters to review their policies on showing videos taken by members of the public putting themselves in harm's way of floodwater. It is understandable that people want to video unusual events like floods rushing down their street, but standing in the way of oncoming flood water, or ignoring instructions of emergency services, can be extremely dangerous. By broadcasting or reposting these videos, media organisations may encourage people to put themselves in harm's way in the future.”