Trump may not totally ignore climate change - expert comment

Professor Chris Hilson, University of Reading, said: “Trump’s re-election may surprise on climate. Internationally, Trump may withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement for a second time, but that’s not likely to have the sort of impact it did before in terms of international diplomacy. It’s already more or less priced in. Other countries will carry on without the US.

“Of course, US climate emissions still count for a big slice of the global whole, so what he does domestically on climate also matters. The Biden administration was itself no angel on climate – US fracking continued apace, and exports of LNG reached record highs. Biden did act to reduce methane emissions though, which is critical for remaining below 2 degrees of warming because it’s a very powerful short term greenhouse gas. Trump could be tempted to cut back on those methane rules. But the EU’s new methane law will not allow imports from countries which have weak methane controls, and the UK should be looking at doing something similar with its proposed CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism). Trade is one of Trump’s favourite policy tools, but it can also be used against him if he tries to engage in a climate race to the bottom.

“As other have noted, US climate policy has also largely moved from stick to carrots in the shape of IRA subsidies for climate friendly industries. These will be harder to dismantle than rule-based sticks because industries like freebies and many of them go to Republican states.

“Likewise, politicians like Trump are elected for a relatively short term, but the markets invest for periods beyond this. So, US industry will be positioning itself for a decarbonised economy. It won’t be investing in coal. And demand for oil and gas will fall as electrification proceeds.

“The real question is whether that decarbonisation and electrification will take place despite Trump of because of him. With Elon Musk’s role in the election, we may see a push to position the US as a new energy powerhouse, with a great Lithium industry, a resurgent nuclear industry, and an internationally competitive EV auto and battery industry. Trump is a businessman. And he likes to win. Sticking to a fossil fuel economy is not likely to position the US economy for the win. So that may yet be the surprise on climate in a Trump presidency. This is not climate, this is business.”