Trump and the threat to international order - expert comment

Dr Joseph O’Mahoney, University of Reading said: “A stable international order relies on people knowing what the rules are and expecting that, generally speaking, others will follow them. A Trump presidency poses the risk that the US rejects the rules, bringing instability to global politics.

"There are six areas of foreign policy to watch carefully:

1. Breaking rules – Trump’s decision-making approach appears capricious and transactional. He is changeable and his reasons for foreign policy decisions are often idiosyncratic. Trump has withdrawn from global agreements, such as the Paris Agreement. Deals are made bilaterally, rather than within multilateral institutions. Ultimately, post-World War Two peace has relied on the rest of the world trusting the US to follow the rules and this is now under threat.
2. Opposing norms – A core principle of international relations is that war isn’t a way of resolving disputes between states. Trump used US troops in Syria to take possession of oil fields, saying “We’re keeping the oil. We have the oil. The oil is secure.” He also criticised the failure of previous administrations to keep the oil after invading Iraq.  Despite the fact that “Annexation of territory by force is prohibited under international law”, Trump formally recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. This move was condemned, even by close US allies.
3. Undermining Ukrainian sovereignty – Trump has raised the possibility of recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, since the occupation by Russian troops. This has also been widely denounced. His claim that he could end the current Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours likely means Trump would pressure Ukraine to cede territory to Russia.
4. Promoting arms races – Trump says that Russia can “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who do not spend more in defence. This has pressured European states to increase military spending and removed a key barrier to nuclear non-proliferation. Trump is encouraging militarisation, despite professing his concern over nuclear weapons and casting himself as the candidate who will end wars.
5. Going nuclear – Historically, Trump has not cooperated with other states on arms control or nonproliferation. He withdrew from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has responded by increasing its stocks of enriched uranium.
6. Exercising unchecked power – There are no longer other Republicans or foreign policy professionals surrounding Trump who have previously provided guardrails and restraints to contain Trump’s impulses. Trump’s power won’t be checked in a second term. The Republican party has been purged of anyone insufficiently loyal to Trump.  The Supreme Court has ruled that a president cannot be prosecuted for “official acts”, effectively allowing him free reign to act as he pleases. 

"Trump’s second term will bring even more uncertainty about the US’s global commitments.

"We might see states decide that they will grab some long-desired territory, calculating that if the US is not committed to resisting conquest or defending allies, they will not face coordinated opposition. Other states will feel forced to arm themselves and form alternative alliances not dependent upon now unreliable US support.  

"There is a serious risk that the world will see increased militarization of international politics, more instability, more uncertainty, and a return to living under the threat of war."