Storm Babet: Expert comments on ‘extraordinary’ weather

Weather experts from the University of Reading have commented on Storm Babet, which has caused floods in the island of Ireland and is set to hit parts of Scotland. A red weather warning is in place for parts of Scotland. 

 

Three Reading meteorologists have provided expert comment on the importance of forecasting, why Babet is so strong, the role of climate change, the importance of naming storms, and information on how to keep safe in extreme weather. 

 

 

Dr Rob Thompson, research scientist at the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, said: “, Storm Babet has brought about a rare red warning in Eastern Scotland, more unusual still, this is for the rainfall expected – as much as 250mm in areas, well over an average month’s rainfall in this area – around 40% of average annual rainfall in London. The rain will be accompanied by very strong winds with their own amber warning. That, likely life saving, warnings can be provided with as much notice as we have seen shows the huge development in weather forecasting over the past few decades. More development in future will give more specific and more time for warnings, to improve further their impact.

 

 

Professor Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, said: “Storm Babet is an extraordinary piece of weather caused by the interaction of a number of linked conditions across the world. The jet stream, which plays such an important role in the weather in Europe, has been squeezed into a weird position, partly as a result of a powerful typhoon that hit Japan last week. An active storm has moved up over the Bay of Biscay, and is now due to slow over the east of Britain, dumping an enormous amount of rain over eastern parts of Scotland.

 

“The risk of flooding is due to these exceptionally high rainfall rates, with rain falling on already wet ground. With the hilly landscape of this part of Scotland, we could see damaging run-off, flash floods, landslips and serious damage caused to buildings and infrastructure.

 

“Scotland is used to heavy rain, but these extremely high levels of rain could hit regions which are not adapted for it, and flash floods from rain can hit anywhere. Don't assume that if you haven't been flooded before, you will be safe.

 

“Climate change has caused seas and air to be unusually warm. Warmer seas have more dynamic energy which can create more damaging storms, and warmer air can hold more water, leading to higher rates of rainfall. Previous research has also shown that large-scale circulations such as the jet stream may be shifting in speed and direction due to an array of global warming impacts, such as melting ice and warmer oceans.” 

 

Dr Jess Neumann, Associate Professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, said: “The naming of storms such as Storm Babet is a successful way of communicating to the public when severe weather is expected. 

 

“This communication is coupled with graded (yellow, amber, red) weather warnings and associated flood alerts and warnings to help people identify if they are at risk of being impacted, and how severely. These warnings are issued by the relevant weather and environmental organisations in affected countries across the British Isles. 

 

“I would advise that everyone checks their Government websites for up-to-date information and warnings which can help people prepare in advance for adverse weather conditions and potential flooding. 

 

“Storm Babet will bring persistent and heavy rainfall to parts of the British Isles and flooding could come from rivers, the sea and also occur suddenly in the form of flash flooding. Having a flood preparedness plan in place can help save lives, property and valuables. 

 

“If you are at risk of flooding in the coming days, I recommend preparing an emergency flood kit now (e.g. torch, batteries, warm clothes, baby/child supplies) and informing yourself on how to turn off gas and electric supplies if needed. Have a plan for moving your valuable possessions out of harm's way in good time (including pets) and establish communication with family members and neighbours, particularly those who may be vulnerable or need help in the event of a flood.”