Cyclone Eloise flood forecasts supporting at-risk communities in Mozambique

Flood forecasts provided by scientists are supporting UK government aid efforts in Mozambique, where Cyclone Eloise is impacting communities still reeling from previous storm damage.

Scientists at the University of Reading, HR Wallingford, University of Bristol, Fathom and the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are providing the latest data on the storm impacts to assist the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in getting aid to the worst affected areas, before they are flooded.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall early on Saturday morning near the city of Beira, with strong winds and flooding impacting people still suffering from the impacts of Cyclone Idai in 2019. Major flooding is also likely along the Limpopo River and its tributaries, with large numbers of people expected to be affected in the districts of Chokwe and Xai-Xai by the end of this week.

Dr Liz Stephens, Associate Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading, said: “While the flooding around Beira is not as severe as 2019, Eloise is driving widespread extreme rainfall across Mozambique that is looking increasingly likely to also cause flooding in the Limpopo River basin.

“Many people currently affected by the floods from Storm Christoph in the UK will sympathise with those elsewhere in the world who are also struck by recurrent flood impacts. Where climate change is exacerbating the frequency of flooding, communities become even more likely to be stuck in a cycle of poverty.”

Dr Linda Speight, a hydrometeorologist at the University of Reading, said: “Since the first time we produced these flood bulletins in 2019 for Cyclone Idai, Mozambique has experienced three major cyclones, Idai, Kenneth, Chalane and now Eloise.

“While this means that humanitarians are better prepared to gather the information they need in advance to help them respond effectively, communities are still recovering from previous events and resources and limited.”

The team have been using the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), jointly developed by ECMWF and the European Commission, and operated from Reading as part of the European Copernicus Emergency Management Service, which provides an overview of flooding events in the next 30 days.

Flood forecasting reports were previously provided following Cyclone Idai in March 2019, and Hurricanes Eta and Iota in Central America in November 2020.

The ongoing collaboration between ECMWF, Copernicus and leading UK scientists has helped to provide governments and aid agencies worldwide with potentially life-saving forecasts of floods.

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