COP26: 2021 extreme weather a 'canary in the coal mine' - expert comment

University of Reading climate scientists have called on world leaders at COP26 to keep the damaging consequences of climate change seen this year in mind as they begin their negotiations.

Published on the first day of UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (31 October), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of Global Climate in 2021 report warns that concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are higher than ever, with the last seven years likely to be the warmest on record and sea levels at a new high as a result.

Professor Hannah Cloke, a natural hazards researcher at the University of Reading, said:

“As a scientist primarily studying floods and heatwaves, I believe 2021 should stand out as something of an 'annus horribilis'. The devastating floods in Europe, China and South America, and killer heatwaves and fires in North America and southern Europe for example, ought to serve as a canary in the coal mine to spur faster action to adapt society to the reality of a changing climate. We should remember that this canary also represents thousands of unnecessary deaths and billions of dollars worth of destruction.

“I only hope that during the next few days in Glasgow, these facts, which summarise the fates of millions of people, are foremost in the minds of the world's political leaders.

“The State of Climate report draws on strong evidence from the recently-published Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, and presents the evidence fairly and clearly. On attribution, the report highlights clearly the events that are strongly linked to climate change, and those where the science is more complex.

“The report also notes the eye-wateringly high number of people in the developing world that don't have enough food – 710 million people – and increasing numbers facing severe food shortage or starvation. In the UK, as we congratulate ourselves for our global leadership on climate in hosting COP26, we should remember that our government has just confirmed it will cut the UK aid budget, designed to help people in these dire positions.

“The UK government promised the British people via its election manifesto, and the world, that it would commit taxpayers' money to helping the world's poorest. The fact that the government is using legal loopholes to further reduce its overseas aid spending, frankly makes me ashamed to be British. If the UK government is serious about 'levelling up' opportunity, it might consider showing some genuine long-term vision and global leadership on this issue.”

Professor Rowan Sutton, climate scientists at the University of Reading and NCAS, said:

“One the most important statements in the recent IPCC sixth assessment report was ‘with every additional increment of global warming, changes in extreme events continue to become larger’.

“Placed alongside the recent devastating extreme events summarised in this crucial WMO report, this highlights just how much is at stake in the Glasgow negotiations. How much worse will we allow extreme events to become?”

Dr Ella Gilbert, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, said:

“Climate change is happening everywhere we look. Whether it’s more devastating heatwaves, worsening floods or rising sea levels, we are feeling the impacts of climate change right here and right now.

“Already – at 1.1°C of warming – we are seeing glaciers melting before our very eyes, wildfires tearing through villages and towns, and floodwaters tragically taking lives and causing huge economic damage. Imagine what kind of impacts will be felt at 1.5°C, 2°C, or worse, 2.8°C of warming – and that is what we’re in for, given current policies and pledges under the Paris Agreement.

“The science is clear: every tenth of a degree of warming and every single tonne of greenhouse gas emissions matters. But what that also means is that every single action taken to mitigate climate change matters.”

Professor Bill Collins, Professor of Climate Processes at the University of Reading, said:

“This WMO report follows on from the IPCC report this summer in highlighting that climate change is causing devastating extreme events across the globe, from heatwaves to rainstorms. Climate change is happening right here and now, it is no longer just a future concern.

“In spite of lockdowns, greenhouse gases have reached record levels in the atmosphere and, even with the current climate pledges from governments, are still expected to lead to warming of 2.7 degrees above preindustrial levels.

“At COP26 the onus is on governments to recognise that we are not yet on track to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. However, the IPCC showed that, strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases would not only reduce the consequences of climate change but also improve air quality.”