MT2WF: Weather Forecasting

Module code: MT2WF

Module provider: Meteorology; School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences

Credits: 20

Level: Level 2 (Intermediate)

When you'll be taught: Semester 1 / 2

Module convenor: Dr Peter Inness, email: p.m.inness@reading.ac.uk

Module co-convenor: Dr Simone Knox, email: s.knox@reading.ac.uk

Pre-requisite module(s): BEFORE TAKING THIS MODULE YOU MUST TAKE MT1ITM OR TAKE MT11C OR TAKE MT1ITMNU OR TAKE MT11CNU (Compulsory)

Co-requisite module(s):

Pre-requisite or Co-requisite module(s):

Module(s) excluded:

Placement information: NA

Academic year: 2024/5

Available to visiting students: No

Talis reading list: Yes

Last updated: 29 August 2024

Overview

Module aims and purpose

The module will introduce the concept of modern weather forecast production as an end-to-end process, with Numerical Weather Prediction at the core of this process.  

Students will engage in a number of practical activities, producing weather forecasts for a range of different customers. This will include the production and filming of a TV weather forecast in the TV studio in the Film, Theatre and Television Department. Staff from that department will provide advice and feedback on the presentation skills needed for this activity. 

Module learning outcomes

By the end of the module, it is expected that students will be able to:

1. Explain how modern Numerical Weather Prediction combines scientific knowledge of atmospheric processes, together with meteorological observations, to produce weather forecasts on a range of different time and space scales
2. Produce weather forecasts aimed at a range of different customer groups, using communication styles appropriate to those customers
3. Compose and deliver a “live” TV weather forecast aimed at the general public
4. Use a process of reflection to make use of feedback and improve their performance as a result

Module content

Most of the taught content will take place in semester 2. The TV forecasting activity, using the TV studio in the Minghella Building, will take place in semester 1 due to restrictions on the availability of the studio in semester 2.

Lecture material will cover the end-to-end process of weather forecast production through the following topics:

• The basic formulation of an NWP model
• The use of meteorological observations to set the initial conditions for a forecast through the process of data assimilation
• Ensemble forecasts and quantifying uncertainty
• The role of the human forecaster in communicating NWP forecasts to customers
• The use of post-processing algorithms to generate data for weather forecast Apps and websites

In practical sessions students will use a range of live and archived weather data and NWP output to produce forecast for a range of different customers in a simulated Weather Centre environment.

In semester 1 students will work in the TV studio, developing their own TV weather forecast.

Structure

Teaching and learning methods

The process of NWP forecast production will be covered in lectures. 

Students will produce a range of different types of weather forecast in a simulated Weather Centre environment. 

In the TV studio students will film rehearsals of their forecasts and will receive feedback on their performance from their peers and members of staff in small group feedback sessions. Students will keep feedback diaries from these sessions. 

Students will familiarise themselves with current professional practice by watching TV forecasts and using discussion boards to critique the performance of forecasting professionals. 

There will be at least one guest lecture from a weather forecasting professional. 

Study hours

At least 40 hours of scheduled teaching and learning activities will be delivered in person, with the remaining hours for scheduled and self-scheduled teaching and learning activities delivered either in person or online. You will receive further details about how these hours will be delivered before the start of the module.

Please note the independent study hours above are notional numbers of hours; each student will approach studying in different ways. We would advise you to reflect on your learning and the number of hours you are allocating to these tasks.

Semester 1 The hours in this column may include hours during the Christmas holiday period.

Semester 2 The hours in this column may include hours during the Easter holiday period.

Summer The hours in this column will take place during the summer holidays and may be at the start and/or end of the module.

Assessment

Requirements for a pass

Students need to achieve an overall module mark of 40% to pass this module.

Summative assessment

Penalties for late submission of summative assessment

The Support Centres will apply the following penalties for work submitted late:

Assessments with numerical marks

• where the piece of work is submitted after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): 10% of the total marks available for that piece of work will be deducted from the mark for each working day (or part thereof) following the deadline up to a total of three working days;
• the mark awarded due to the imposition of the penalty shall not fall below the threshold pass mark, namely 40% in the case of modules at Levels 4-6 (i.e. undergraduate modules for Parts 1-3) and 50% in the case of Level 7 modules offered as part of an Integrated Masters or taught postgraduate degree programme;
• where the piece of work is awarded a mark below the threshold pass mark prior to any penalty being imposed, and is submitted up to three working days after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline), no penalty shall be imposed;
• where the piece of work is submitted more than three working days after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): a mark of zero will be recorded.

Assessments marked Pass/Fail

• where the piece of work is submitted within three working days of the deadline (or any formally agreed extension of the deadline): no penalty will be applied;
• where the piece of work is submitted more than three working days after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension of the deadline): a grade of Fail will be awarded.

The University policy statement on penalties for late submission can be found at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/cqsd/-/media/project/functions/cqsd/documents/qap/penaltiesforlatesubmission.pdf

You are strongly advised to ensure that coursework is submitted by the relevant deadline. You should note that it is advisable to submit work in an unfinished state rather than to fail to submit any work.

Formative assessment

Formative assessment is any task or activity which creates feedback (or feedforward) for you about your learning, but which does not contribute towards your overall module mark.

Students will produce 2 weather forecasts (radio forecast script and Senior Meteorologist guidance forecast) for formative feedback prior to producing the summative aviation forecast. 

Reassessment

Additional costs