MTMC01-Foundations of Statistical Inference

Module Provider: Meteorology
Number of credits: 10 [5 ECTS credits]
Level:7
Terms in which taught: Autumn term module
Pre-requisites:
Non-modular pre-requisites:
Co-requisites:
Modules excluded: MTMG06 Statistics for Weather and Climate Science or MT2SWC Statistics for Weather and Climate Science
Current from: 2023/4

Module Convenor: Prof Ted Shepherd
Email: theodore.shepherd@reading.ac.uk

Module Co-convenor: Dr Ben Harvey
Email: b.j.harvey@reading.ac.uk

Type of module:

Summary module description:

A module comprising both a lecture and a practical component, which together introduce students to the use of statistical methods in climate science, and their practical application.

Aims:

This module aims to introduce basic statistical concepts and reasoning relevant to environmental science, as well as provide experience in the proper use of statistical methods for the analysis of climate data.

Assessable learning outcomes:

By the end of this module, the student should be able to:

• Describe the main concepts in statistical science;


• Select and compare appropriate analysis methods;


• Critically analyse data and draw correct inferences;


• Use statistical software.

Additional outcomes:

• Discuss the development and importance of statistics;


• Appraise and criticise quoted statistics (transferable skill).

Outline content:

• Introduction to statistics: basic concepts, history


• Exploratory data analysis: summary statistics


• Forecast verification: skill scores


• Linear regression: correlation


• Multiple regression: confounders, causality


• Time series analysis: autocorrelation


• Concepts of probability: Bayes theorem


• Probability distributions


• Parameter estimation: confidence intervals


• Hypothesis testing: significance tests, p-values

The practical content involves supervised hands-on experience using statistical software to analyse and interpret data.

Brief description of teaching and learning methods:

Lectures and computer practicals.

Contact hours:

	Autumn	Spring	Summer
Lectures	10
Practicals classes and workshops	20
Guided independent study:
Wider reading (independent)	20
Preparation for tutorials	10
Preparation of practical report	35
Completion of formative assessment tasks	5
Total hours by term	100	0	0
Total hours for module	100

Summative Assessment Methods:

Method	Percentage
Written assignment including essay	100

Summative assessment- Examinations:

Summative assessment- Coursework and in-class tests:

Three assignments, similar in nature to the practicals, but more elaborated.

Formative assessment methods:

Unassessed problem sheets on each section of material, in the practical sessions.

Penalties for late submission:

The below information applies to students on taught programmes except those on Postgraduate Flexible programmes. Penalties for late submission, and the associated procedures, which apply to Postgraduate Flexible programmes are specified in the policy 'Penalties for late submission for Postgraduate Flexible programmes', which can be found here: https://www.reading.ac.uk/cqsd/-/media/project/functions/cqsd/documents/cqsd-old-site-documents/penaltiesforlatesubmissionpgflexible.pdf
The Support Centres will apply the following penalties for work submitted late:

• where the piece of work is submitted after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): 10% of the total marks available for that piece of work will be deducted from the mark for each working day (or part thereof) following the deadline up to a total of five working days;
• where the piece of work is submitted more than five working days after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): a mark of zero will be recorded.

The University policy statement on penalties for late submission can be found at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/cqsd/-/media/project/functions/cqsd/documents/cqsd-old-site-documents/penaltiesforlatesubmission.pdf
You are strongly advised to ensure that coursework is submitted by the relevant deadline. You should note that it is advisable to submit work in an unfinished state rather than to fail to submit any work.

Assessment requirements for a pass:

50%

Reassessment arrangements:

Completion of new assignment equivalent to the missed summative assignments.

Additional Costs (specified where applicable):

1) Required text books: 

2) Specialist equipment or materials: 

3) Specialist clothing, footwear or headgear: 

4) Printing and binding: 

5) Computers and devices with a particular specification: 

6) Travel, accommodation and subsistence: 

Last updated: 30 March 2023