This project will allow an investigation of the effects of climate change on temperature over the North Atlantic and its impact on the precipitation over the West African continent. Two emission scenarios (historical and future) and climate model outputs will be used to assess the effect of climate change.
Department: Meteorology
Supervised by: Dr Paul-Arthur Monerie and Dr Tillys Petit
The economy of Sahelian countries are dependent on the strength of the West African Monsoon. However, there are large uncertainties in how the West African Monsoon precipitation will change in the future, especially over the semi-arid Sahel. This uncertainty is due to the large range of atmospheric circulation changes predicted to occur over West Africa due to increases in greenhouse gases in state-of-the-art climate models. Our ongoing work shows that uncertainties in Sahel precipitation change are associated with uncertainty in extratropical surface air temperature, including over the North Atlantic. There is evidence that strong changes in North Atlantic temperature could lead to unprecedented anomalous conditions over West Africa, but the future change in North Atlantic temperature is uncertain. The effect of abrupt changes in North Atlantic temperature on future change in West African monsoon is not well documented and needs to be better understood. The aim of this project is to bridge the gap in our understanding of how North Atlantic Ocean temperature changes affect the Sahel rainfall. The student will identify the North Atlantic temperature changes in a range of sophisticated climate models, and will explore how those changes affect Sahel rainfall over the 21st century. Results of the project will be used to feed into our current research and could be turned into a scientific paper, or to write a research proposal.
Task 1: The student will spend the first week reading the relevant publications on the impacts of climate change/sea surface temperature change on Sahel precipitation and to familiarise with the database and the programming language. Task 2: the second week will be dedicated to the estimation of a sea surface temperature index over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and a precipitation index over the Sahel. These indexes will be used to select a subset of simulations based on abrupt changes in the North Atlantic temperature and Sahel precipitation. Task 3: the third task will consist in comparing the changes in temperature and precipitation with changes in low-level wind and moisture fluxes, to highlight possible relationships between the North Atlantic Ocean and West Africa. We expect that it will take a week and a half. Task 4: A week and a half will be dedicated to the analyses of the causes of the abrupt changes in North Atlantic temperature by investigating its link with the ocean dynamic (heat loss, vertical stratification, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation). Task 5: Finally, the student will compare models to observations, using key metrics defined over the 4 first tasks of the project in order to reduce uncertainty in Sahel precipitation change. This fifth task is expected to take a week. However, should the student have spare time within the six-week period, there is plenty of scope for further investigation.
As the bulk of this project involves analysing climate model data, experience with a programming language would be an advantage (e.g., Matlab, NCL, Python). However, analysis code and informal training and support will be provided. The student should have an interest in meteorology/climatology/oceanography, particularly of the tropics and North Atlantic.
Throughout this project, the student will have the opportunity to gain knowledge in climate dynamics and tropical meteorology, as well as to have an overview on the impact of climate change. The project will also allow the student to develop their data analysis and scientific programming skills, with support from the supervisors. As an optional output the student will have the opportunity to work on communication skills, preparing a presentation for a scientific audience.
Within the Department of Meteorology, Whiteknights campus
Preferred hours are 9am-5pm, Monday to Friday, but could be negotiated if needed.
Wednesday 01 June 2022 - Thursday 11 August 2022
The post will be advertised centrally on the UROP website between 21st February and 4th April 2022. Students should submit their CV and Cover Letter directly to the Project Supervisor (click on supervisor name at the top of the page for email). Successful candidates will be invited for an interview.